Brazil surpassing U.S. as top beef producer, easing global supply squeeze

Barretos, Brazil | Reuters — Brazil surpassed the U.S. because the world’s high beef producer final yr, in accordance with market estimates, after the South American nation beat output forecasts by a whole bunch of 1000’s of tons, easing a worldwide provide squeeze and serving to restrict a surge in meat costs.

Brazil was already the most important beef exporter, transport meat value virtually $17 billion (C$23.5 billion) in 2025, in accordance with authorities commerce information launched on Tuesday. Beef manufacturing numbers are usually not due till February, however analysts have lately raised their estimates. Farmers have been sending extra animals to slaughter, cashing in on excessive export demand from nations together with China and the U.S., the place low supply has pushed beef costs to file ranges.

Manufacturing out-performs forecasts

Elevated slaughter sometimes results in a interval of low output as producers maintain again animals to breed and rebuild herds. However productiveness positive aspects in Brazil might restrict and even stop a downturn, folks within the trade say. They famous that farms have been inseminating cattle faster, fattening them quicker and slaughtering them youthful.

“Ten years in the past, the typical age of cattle slaughtered in Brazil was 5 years,” stated Vinicius Barbosa, a business supervisor liable for tens of 1000’s of cattle on the CMA feedlot in Barretos, about 260 miles (420 km) north of Sao Paulo. “Now it’s 36 months and going quickly to 24,” he stated.

Mauricio Nogueira, head of livestock consultancy Athenagro, stated Brazilian beef manufacturing far surpassed his forecast in 2025. Output grew 4 per cent for the yr, the place he had predicted a 2.7 per cent drop. The rise of round 800,000 tons was about equal to complete annual exports of Argentina, the world’s No. 5 beef shipper.

Rabobank, which had anticipated Brazil’s beef manufacturing to say no in 2025, now sees 0.5 per cent development to 12.5 million tons carcass weight equal. The U.S. Division of Agriculture in December raised its estimate for Brazilian beef output by 450,000 tons to 12.35 million tons.

If the official numbers affirm market estimates, 2025 would be the first yr that Brazil’s output may have surpassed U.S. manufacturing, which fell 3.9 per cent to 11.8 million tons in 2025, in accordance with USDA estimates, following years of drought.

Feedlots, rising carcass weight drive output

U.S. beef manufacturing will fall an extra 0.9 per cent to 11.7 million tons in 2026, the USDA stated. In Brazil, the USDA and Rabobank challenge a decline in output, however Nogueira stated rising productiveness might really increase Brazil’s manufacturing by round 300,000 tons.

Virtually 28 per cent of cattle slaughtered in Brazil will likely be fattened in feedlots by 2027, up from 22 per cent in 2025, in accordance with consultants Scot Consultoria.

“Feedlots do in 100 days for cattle what pasture does in between 18 and 24 months,” stated Barbosa, including that CMA’s Barretos feedlot would course of 80,000 cattle in 2026, up from 65,000 final yr.

Brazil’s booming corn ethanol trade is producing a byproduct generally known as dried distillers grains that has greater protein than corn and helps cattle fatten quicker, analysts stated.

Cows have gotten pregnant extra usually as farmers undertake extra environment friendly insemination strategies, permitting producers to slaughter extra animals with out decreasing herd measurement.

Scot Consultoria expects Brazil’s being pregnant charge – the proportion of females that develop into pregnant throughout a breeding season – to rise to 54 per cent in 2027 from an anticipated 50 per cent in 2026.

Higher genetics are additionally enhancing cattle development and boosting meat high quality, analysts say. And Brazil nonetheless has not matched the 90 per cent proportion of cattle passing by way of feedlots as within the U.S., or Australia’s 40 per cent.

If Brazil’s being pregnant charge rose to 66 per cent, equal to neighbouring Argentina, the variety of calves birthed annually would rise from an estimated 32 million to 40 million, in accordance with consultants Datagro. The pregnancy rate in Canada is 96 per cent, they stated.

Authorities information present Brazil has 238 million cattle, nicely over double the 94 million within the U.S. Larger productiveness would enable output to increase with out growing cattle numbers or the realm of pasture land. That would ease one financial driver of deforestation of the Amazon rainforest.

Brazil’s cattle herd is predicted to develop simply 4 per cent between 2024 and 2034 whereas beef manufacturing will increase 24 per cent, in accordance with Brazilian beef exporter group ABIEC. U.S. beef manufacturing will rise 3.5 per cent and cattle numbers will develop 5 per cent over that interval, by USDA estimates.

Brazil key as high producers reduce

World beef costs will hinge on whether or not Brazil can keep away from a manufacturing downturn this yr.

The USDA expects output on this planet’s six largest producers to fall in 2026 by a mixed 2.4 per cent – the most important annual drop in many years – after rising 0.4 per cent in 2025. These producers are Brazil, the U.S., China, the European Union, Argentina and Australia. The listing excludes India, which the USDA names as one of many six high beef producers although that nation produces buffalo meat relatively than beef.

The USDA expects Brazilian manufacturing to fall 5.3 per cent to 11.7 million tons carcass weight equal this yr. If Nogueira’s estimates are confirmed and output rises as an alternative to round 12.6 million tons, the decline within the high six producers can be simply 0.2 per cent.

“There has by no means been a lot worldwide demand for Brazilian beef,” stated Guilherme Jank, a Datagro analyst, including that native beef packers have additionally ramped up capability.

“We’re witnessing firsthand a big shift in how the meat cattle provide system works in Brazil, by way of high quality, scale, effectivity, and productiveness,” he stated.

— Further reporting by Ella Cao in Beijing and Tom Polansek in Chicago

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